USD/JPY Price Analysis: Hangs near daily low, just below133.00 amid modest USD weakness

• USD/JPY retreats from over a two-week high touched earlier this Monday.
• The emergence of fresh selling around the USD exerts downward pressure.
• The 100-day SMA and 50% Fibo. confluence hurdle holds the key for bulls.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers after touching over a two-week high on Monday and trades just below the 133.00 round-figure mark during the early North American session.

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on its intraday gains amid the uncertainty over the Fed's rate-hike path, which turns out to be a key factor exerting some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The downside, however, seems limited, at least for the time being, amid a generally positive risk tone, which tends to undermine the traditional safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY).

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair faces rejection near the 133.75 confluence hurdle, comprising the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March downfall and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The said area should now act as a pivotal point, which if cleared will set the stage for an extension of the recent move-up witnessed over the past week or so.

That said, oscillators on the daily chart are yet to confirm a bullish outlook, making it prudent to wait for a move beyond the aforementioned barrier before positioning for any further gains. The USD/JPY pair might then aim to surpass the 134.00 round-figure mark and accelerate the momentum towards testing the 61.8% Fibo. level resistance, around the 134.75-134.80 region.

On the flip side, any further slide below the 132.80 area, or the 38.2% Fibo. level, is likely to find decent support near the 132.25 region ahead of the 132.00 mark and the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the 131.60-131.55 zone. A convincing break below the latter could drag the USD/JPY pair below the 131.00 mark, towards the next relevant support near the 130.55-130.50 region.

USD/JPY daily chart

Key levels to watch