Back
14 Oct 2015
USD/CAD remains constructive medium term – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at Westpac still see a constructive outlook in USD/CAD in the medium term.
Key Quotes
“We push our bearish CAD view out into 2016 and adopt a constructive view for the week & month ahead”.
“CAD may have risen strongly in recent days but the appreciation still understates the bounce in crude oil and short term yield spreads in its favour”.
“Energy prices near $50/bbl model USD/CAD nearer 1.28 while the loss of yield support for the USD that has been in play out since the mid-Sep FOMC puts 2yr bond spreads at levels that would justify USD/CAD nearer 1.26”.
“The gravitational pull of yield spreads and energy prices could see USD/CAD trade more sustainably below 1.30 near term”.
“However, we maintain a bullish medium term bias on USD/CAD. Another BoC rate cut seems likely in 2016H1. Questionable China growth prospects likely to keep Canada’s terms of trade suppressed deep into 2016”.
“That, and ongoing fiscal and household leverage headwinds suggest risks to consensus for 2% growth in 2016 are to the downside”.
Key Quotes
“We push our bearish CAD view out into 2016 and adopt a constructive view for the week & month ahead”.
“CAD may have risen strongly in recent days but the appreciation still understates the bounce in crude oil and short term yield spreads in its favour”.
“Energy prices near $50/bbl model USD/CAD nearer 1.28 while the loss of yield support for the USD that has been in play out since the mid-Sep FOMC puts 2yr bond spreads at levels that would justify USD/CAD nearer 1.26”.
“The gravitational pull of yield spreads and energy prices could see USD/CAD trade more sustainably below 1.30 near term”.
“However, we maintain a bullish medium term bias on USD/CAD. Another BoC rate cut seems likely in 2016H1. Questionable China growth prospects likely to keep Canada’s terms of trade suppressed deep into 2016”.
“That, and ongoing fiscal and household leverage headwinds suggest risks to consensus for 2% growth in 2016 are to the downside”.