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22 Mar 2016
45% risk of a Brexit today - BBH
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained Osborne's budget last week was a self-inflict wound.
Key Quotes:
"Osborne known for his political prowess is being forced to retreat from his budget proposals that are less than a week old.
A large budget hole (at least GBP4.4 bln ) needs to be filled. Over the past couple of years, Osborne has had to back down several times.
Given the political environment, an uncontroversial budget was clearly desirable, but he failed to deliver. It gave the EU-skeptic IDS the cover to resign.
Osborne had been considered the most likely to succeed Cameron as Prime Minister.
Johnson was seen as the most likely Tory challenger.
Osborne’s budget has seen his support wane. Moreover, the risks of Brexit are increasing. The events market PredictIt has the odds at 45% today. "
Key Quotes:
"Osborne known for his political prowess is being forced to retreat from his budget proposals that are less than a week old.
A large budget hole (at least GBP4.4 bln ) needs to be filled. Over the past couple of years, Osborne has had to back down several times.
Given the political environment, an uncontroversial budget was clearly desirable, but he failed to deliver. It gave the EU-skeptic IDS the cover to resign.
Osborne had been considered the most likely to succeed Cameron as Prime Minister.
Johnson was seen as the most likely Tory challenger.
Osborne’s budget has seen his support wane. Moreover, the risks of Brexit are increasing. The events market PredictIt has the odds at 45% today. "