US NFP and Eurozone consumer confidence amongst market movers – Rabobank

Michael Every, Head of FMR at Rabobank, lists down the key economic releases for the day.

Key Quotes

“Today has already seen Aussie trade data for November, and they were vastly better than expected at AUD1,243m (consensus; -AUD550m). That’s going to be a real boost to GDP growth failing some serious national accounting jiggery-pokery from the boy-wonders at the ABS.”

“We also got Japanese real cash earnings for November, which were -0.2% y-o-y: that makes a mockery of PM Abe’s claim yesterday that he would be forcing firms to make as generous pay rises to workers in 2017 as they did in 2016 (or “This kind of help, I don’t need.”) There’s our global problem Big Read.”

“Next up it’s German retail sales and factory orders. (As an aside, I note that in the FT today there is also reference to fears of a housing bubble in Germany, and a cultural shift towards the appreciation of asset-price appreciation. There’s another problem with our globalization paradigm: everyone copies the wrong cultural example! If the Anglo and Asian economies were less fixated on property, like Germany used to be, we’d be arguably far better off, just as if the US would copy China’s example on infrastructure and the fiscal deficit…hang on, isn’t that at least on the cards now? All we need is for China to embrace markets more fully – though that might be a long wait judging from the last few days’ action.)”

“Then we see Eurozone consumer confidence, expected unchanged at -5.1, close to what counts for ebullient by local standards. After that it’s India’s Q1 advance GDP print (that’s the fiscal, not calendar Q10, where we get to see how much damage removing cash from a cash-based economy has wrought.”

“Finally it’s the two key US issues: the trade balance for November (a whopping deficit is expected) and the payrolls, where a healthy 175K is the consensus – but, as ever, watch the average earnings component for any upside surprises from 2.8% y-o-y. “Havoc” will indeed be the watch-word if we get a >3.0% or <2.5% print there.”