AUD/USD remains comatose despite upbeat NAB Business Survey data

The upbeat NAB business survey data released today has failed to lift the Aussie bond yield and the AUD/USD pair. The exchange rate remains flat lined just above 0.76 handle. 

Business conditions are back near pre-GFC levels

The survey data showed, “Business conditions hit another multi-year high, returning back to around pre-GFC levels in June. The business conditions index rose 4 points, to +15 index points, which is well above the long-run average (+5). Meanwhile, business confidence rose only slightly in June, but despite being less buoyant than business conditions, has held up above long-run average levels.”

The survey also says the RBA is likely to keep rates on hold for an extended period of time (mid 2019), ‘Given the risks to the outlook, signs of moderation in the housing market, and reluctance to see the AUD strengthen further’. 

The comments on interest rates could be the one keeping the Aussie bulls at bay. Weaker-than-expected loan growth (actual 1.0%, expected 1.5%) number for May could also be playing the spoil sport. The 10-year Aussie bond yield remains flat lined around 2.785%. 

AUD/USD Technicals

The spot was last seen trading around 0.7605 levels. Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet says, “The pair is neutral-to-bullish short term, as in the 4 hours chart, the price is hovering right above a flat 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators head north around their midlines. Friday's high of 0.7620 is the immediate resistance, with gains beyond the level favoring additional advances towards the 0.7700 price zone.” 

A break above 0.7625 (38.2% Fib R of June 30 high - July 5 low) would open doors for 0.7636 (June 14 high) and 0.7682 (July 4 high). On the downside, breach of support at 0.7600 (zero figure + 5-dMA) could yield a pullback to 0.7571 (July 5 low) and 0.7549 (100-DMA).