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25 Mar 2013
Forex Flash: Cypriot news may hover over EUR/USD in the near term - OCBC Bank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank believes that news flow surrounding Cyprus may continue to hold sway over the EUR in the near term while a relief rally cannot be discounted developments remain positive.
On the CTFC front, he adds that net speculative EUR shorts increased in the latest week although the EUR/USD may assume a slightly more neutral tone in the interim. He writes, “Note the disappointing German Ifo last Friday. Going ahead, a sustained breach above 1.3075 may encourage the pair higher towards the 100-day MA (1.3133) while a failure may well see the pair sinking back below 1.3000 towards the 200-day MA (1.2882). On the data front, look also towards the slew of confidence indicators on tap this week.” Shifting to GBP/USD, Ng adds that the pair may attempt to consolidate its gains chalked up over the past two sessions but the untimely reminder from rating agency Fitch (regarding prospects of a downgrade by the end of April) may temper excessive GBP outperformance beyond the short term. He writes, “Notably, net speculative CFTC GBP shorts deepened in the latest week although we may expect some consolidative behavior around the 1.5100-1.5300 region as the pair attempts to re-coup its recent losses.”
On the CTFC front, he adds that net speculative EUR shorts increased in the latest week although the EUR/USD may assume a slightly more neutral tone in the interim. He writes, “Note the disappointing German Ifo last Friday. Going ahead, a sustained breach above 1.3075 may encourage the pair higher towards the 100-day MA (1.3133) while a failure may well see the pair sinking back below 1.3000 towards the 200-day MA (1.2882). On the data front, look also towards the slew of confidence indicators on tap this week.” Shifting to GBP/USD, Ng adds that the pair may attempt to consolidate its gains chalked up over the past two sessions but the untimely reminder from rating agency Fitch (regarding prospects of a downgrade by the end of April) may temper excessive GBP outperformance beyond the short term. He writes, “Notably, net speculative CFTC GBP shorts deepened in the latest week although we may expect some consolidative behavior around the 1.5100-1.5300 region as the pair attempts to re-coup its recent losses.”