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24 Feb 2014
Flash: Buying the rumour sell the fact - FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Goncalo Moreira CMT, FXStreet Technical Analyst notes that the latest release of the Currencies Forecast Poll still reflects a weakened interest to short the EUR/USD in the short-term.
Key Quotes
“The coincidence of bullish and bearish views at the 50% levels is not to be seen as an offsetting signal since the main technical event remains the 70% from last week where bullish forecasts were majority.”
“The short-term average was right the previous week when projecting the EUR/USD above 1,37. For the current trading week, poll participants still see the major pair staying in the 1.37 figure (averaging 1.3746), while one and three months ahead the average targets are slightly lower at 1.3602 and 1.3416.”
“In the distribution of bullish and bearish biases across the past year, the mid-term horizon exhibited some inversions of sentiment coincident with strong correction-lows in the EUR/USD uptrending exchange rate. The shorter-term distribution is more noisy but somehow correlation to it. What is most intriguing, is the missing correlation on the larger horizons where the bias stayed untouched.”
“What does this mean for traders? What we can't see neither from the raw data nor in the above chart, is the trend in the forecasted levels: mid and long-term forecasts are increasing and have been raised by 2 or 3 big figures since the start of the year. With most financial markets stuck in congestion, the U.S. dollar index on the inroads to the downside, be prepared for a volatility surge in the next weeks. Buying the rumor and selling the fact could be the adage to follow this time with a final thrust in the euro.”
Key Quotes
“The coincidence of bullish and bearish views at the 50% levels is not to be seen as an offsetting signal since the main technical event remains the 70% from last week where bullish forecasts were majority.”
“The short-term average was right the previous week when projecting the EUR/USD above 1,37. For the current trading week, poll participants still see the major pair staying in the 1.37 figure (averaging 1.3746), while one and three months ahead the average targets are slightly lower at 1.3602 and 1.3416.”
“In the distribution of bullish and bearish biases across the past year, the mid-term horizon exhibited some inversions of sentiment coincident with strong correction-lows in the EUR/USD uptrending exchange rate. The shorter-term distribution is more noisy but somehow correlation to it. What is most intriguing, is the missing correlation on the larger horizons where the bias stayed untouched.”
“What does this mean for traders? What we can't see neither from the raw data nor in the above chart, is the trend in the forecasted levels: mid and long-term forecasts are increasing and have been raised by 2 or 3 big figures since the start of the year. With most financial markets stuck in congestion, the U.S. dollar index on the inroads to the downside, be prepared for a volatility surge in the next weeks. Buying the rumor and selling the fact could be the adage to follow this time with a final thrust in the euro.”