USD/CAD: fair value estimate to the upper-1.26 area - Scotiabank

Analysts at Scotiabank noted that the CAD is a mid-performer among the G10 after weekend comments from BoC Gov. Poloz.

Key Quotes:

"Weekend comments from BoC Gov. Poloz were constructive as he highlighted the improvement in business investment and confidence in managing financial stability risks."

"The Bank of Canada releases its Financial Stability Review on Thursday. This week’s domestic releases include Wednesday’s trade and Friday’s housing starts and employment."

"Domestic rate expectations appear to be stabilizing in the aftermath of last week’s tariff announcements."

"OIS are pricing in just under 20bpts of tightening for July and a cumulative two 25bpt hikes by December. The 2Y spread remains elevated however, and renewed weakness in oil has pushed up our fair value estimate for USDCAD to the upper-1.26 area."