UOB: Too soon to expect a sustained rise in EUR/USD

United Overseas Bank analysis team are holding onto their view that EUR could continue to weaken towards the 2018 low near 1.1215 as it subsequently touched 1.1231 last Friday (15 Feb) before trading sideways.

Key Quotes

“We warned of the rapidly waning momentum yesterday (19 Feb) & indicated that EUR “has to move & stay below 1.1280 within these 1 to 2 days or a break of 1.1350 ‘key resistance’ would not be surprising”.”

“Price action has shifted immediate risk to the upside but it is too soon to expect a sustained rise in EUR. Momentum indicators are lackluster & any advance is expected to struggle to move above 1.1440 (1.1410 is already quite a strong level).”

“In other words, while the current mild upward pressure could lead to a higher EUR, the prospect for a sustained up-move is not high. On the downside, a move below 1.1270 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.”