Global economic trackers: Still in the red – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered analysts suggest that their global heatmap remains in the red (with many downward pointing arrows), with no signs yet of bottoming out.

Key Quotes

“Since May, these downside risks have increased, with no opportunity for the ‘green shoots’ to bud. US-China trade tensions have escalated, with US ratcheting up tariffs again and increased risk of a no-deal Brexit. Slowing global growth with intensifying downside risks remains our core scenario.”

“Global growth remains soft. While our GDP trackers reflect fewer (12 versus 14) downward pointing arrows (which suggest economies are tracking weaker than their four-quarter average) than previously, key major economies are doing worse than before. China’s growth outlook has softened (losing its upward pointing arrow) and Germany’s growth is now tracking weaker than its four-quarter average.”

“Global manufacturing PMIs are growing slower than their six-month moving average in 14 of 21 economies, versus nine previously. Further, 14 economies have PMIs below 50, compared to eight previously.”

“Monetary conditions have loosened as global central banks cut policy rates to support their economies. 13 of 20 economies saw monetary conditions ease relative to the six-month moving average in our current heatmap, versus 10 of 20 economies observing tighter monetary conditions back in May.”