Reuters poll: Rupee to gain 3.1% to 74.00 vs. US dollar in a year, USD/INR off record highs

According to strategists polled by Reuters, the Indian rupee is seen recovering ground gains the US dollar in the next year, although it will still remain in the woods among other Emerging Market currencies (EM), in light of the coronavirus pandemic.

Key findings

“The rupee would strengthen 3.1% to 74.00 per US dollar in a year from 76.39 on Thursday, based on the median forecast. Forecasts ranged from 71.50 to 80.00, implying a 6.4% rise to a 4.7% decline.

The latest outlook matches a wider poll of strategists, who forecast EM currencies would make up some lost ground. Most expect the U.S. dollar's strength to remain intact over the next three months.

The rupee is forecast to trade at 75.55 and 76.00 per dollar by the end of April and mid-year, respectively. Those forecasts were also in a relatively wide range, 72.45 to 79.00.

Of the 39 respondents polled, 17 still expected the rupee to depreciate beyond its recent record low at some point over the next year.

Some strategists said the RBI's interventions prevented the rupee from falling further.”

USD/INR implications

USD/INR is off the record high reached on Thursday at 76.43, now trading near 76.00 following India’s Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s national address about the coronavirus situation.