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31 Jul 2014
US Q2 GDP number not spectacular given the stimulus seen in this cycle - Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Łódź) - Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank believes the 2.4% Q2 US GDP annual growth is not a satisfying number, given the stimulus seen in this cycle.
Key quotes
“Indeed since the end of 2009 the average YoY growth has been 2% and has struggled to eclipse that rate consistently since.”
“The one question mark over the Q2 2014 release is that inventory build accounted for 40% of the strong number.”
“So will sales and activity justify this over the coming months? Our US economist Joe Lavorgna thinks so.”
“Joe writes that the level of inventories versus demand (i.e., sales) is quite low. In fact, the inventory to sales (I/S) ratio slipped from 3.85 in Q1 to 3.84 in Q2, which is unchanged from year-ago levels.”
“So as ever the US economy is generating much debate.”
Key quotes
“Indeed since the end of 2009 the average YoY growth has been 2% and has struggled to eclipse that rate consistently since.”
“The one question mark over the Q2 2014 release is that inventory build accounted for 40% of the strong number.”
“So will sales and activity justify this over the coming months? Our US economist Joe Lavorgna thinks so.”
“Joe writes that the level of inventories versus demand (i.e., sales) is quite low. In fact, the inventory to sales (I/S) ratio slipped from 3.85 in Q1 to 3.84 in Q2, which is unchanged from year-ago levels.”
“So as ever the US economy is generating much debate.”